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Soaring gasoline prices are threatening to undercut President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects and offering Republicans an easy target. With prices pushing $4 a gallon and threatening to go even higher, Obama sought Thursday to confront rising public anxiety and strike back at his GOP critics.

“Only in politics do people root for bad news, do they greet bad news so enthusiastically,” Obama said of Republicans. “You pay more; they’re licking their chops.”

Obama said dismissively that all the Republicans can talk about is more drilling — “a bumper sticker ... a strategy to get politicians through an election” — when the nation’s energy challenges demand much more. In a speech in Miami, he promoted the expansion of domestic oil and gas exploration but also the development of new forms of energy.

For all the political claims, economists say there’s not much a president of either party can do about gasoline prices. Certainly not in the short term. But it’s clear that people are concerned — a new Associated Press-GfK poll says seven in 10 find the issue deeply important — so it’s sure to be a political issue through the summer.

“Right now, we’re experiencing yet another painful reminder of why developing new energy is so critical to our future,” the president said. At an average of $3.58 a gallon, prices are already up 25 cents since Jan. 1, and experts say they could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by Memorial Day.

Those higher prices could hurt consumer spending and unravel some of the recent improvements in the economy. And they could also be a daily reminder to voters to question Obama’s contention that he’s making the nation — and them — more secure.

While motorists are already starting to complain, many economists see the $4-a-gallon mark as a breaking point above which the economy starts to suffer real pain. Analysts estimate that every one-cent increase is roughly a $1.4 billon drain on the economy.

Obama’s Republican challengers aren’t letting it all slide by. They have stepped up their attacks on his energy policies, including his rejection last month of a pipeline to carry oil from Canada to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. And they’re full of promises.

“I’ve developed a program for American energy so no future president will ever bow to a Saudi king again, and so every American can look forward to $2.50-a-gallon gasoline,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said in the Wednesday night GOP debate in Mesa, Ariz. He calls his strategy “Drill Here, Drill Now.”

At the same event, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania — who has warned of $5-a-gallon gas — asserted that “we have a lot of troubles around the world, as you see the Middle East in flames and what’s going on in this country with gas prices and the economy.” And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney suggested that even more troubling than rising gasoline prices was Iranian President Mahmoud “Ahmadinejad with nuclear weapons.”

In his speech at the University of Miami, Obama sought to draw a contrast with his GOP challengers and made a pointed reference to what he suggested was Republican glee at rising gas prices.....READ MORE

Prepare the foodstuffs, batten down the hatches, buy a bike -- gasoline prices are expected to rise this weekend as a combination of international tensions and domestic disasters cause local stations to add between 5 to 8 cents per gallon.

Motorists in the region were already paying an average of $3.67 per gallon Thursday, up more than 2 cents from what they paid Wednesday. Prices in the Pittsburgh region have gone up more than 5 cents since last week, according to GasBuddy.com, a fuel-price tracking website based in Minnesota.

The upward trend is expected to continue: Analysts at GasBuddy expect daily increases over the weekend not seen since October, when Moammar Gadhafi's downfall in Libya sent oil prices skyward.

The culprits this week: continued dismay over threats from Iran, a massive refinery fire in the state of Washington and early anticipation of the summer driving season.

"Essentially, the market's freaking out, if you will," said Patrick DeHaan, a senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.com.

Creeping near the $4-per-gallon mark does more than draw driver ire: It's a political liability for state and national politicians, sends airline stocks falling and kick-starts what's expected to be a painful year at the pump.

Democratic President Barack Obama fought back in Miami Thursday against critics who say his administration hasn't done enough to lower fuel costs, accusing Republican candidates of playing election-year politics with the issue.

Nationwide, motorists were paying an average of $3.59 for a gallon of gas Thursday, an increase of 36 cents per gallon from this time one year ago.

Since station owners typically price gasoline in anticipation of changes in the market, the slightest shift in body language from the Middle East or a service disruption across the country can increase prices.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com

Asia’s #1 capital raising and investment conference for the mining industry.

Asia Mining Congress is the number one destination for mining companies around the world looking to raise capital in Asia. It is the event in Asia with the highest end-investor attendance and attracts the participation of a truly diverse group of capital holders.

Now moving into its 8th year, Asia Mining Congress looks set to continue to grow in 2012, with more mines on display and more investors taking part. Our sponsors and exhibitors are now signing up for 2012!

Asia Mining Congress is the leading capital raising and mining investment conference in Asia:

•For global miners, linking global companies to different capital sources in Asia
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Features for 2012

•Top CEOs and Global mining leaders keynote plenary session
•Commodity-focused sessions on Coal, Copper and Iron Ore
•Asian mining projects focused sessions on key regulatory developments, investment & project showcases, covering Indonesia, Philippines, & the rest of Southeast Asia
•Australia mining focused session on taxation, capital flows, M& A & deal flow drivers
•Emerging region focused sessions on Africa & Mongolia!
•NEW one-day Americas Investment Day, featuring up and coming projects in Latin America & Canada
•NEW CAPEX and asset optimisation lunch forum for junior & mid-cap mining companies
•NEW Global Mining Regulators’ Lunch Forum
•More Socials!
•More on-floor seminars for retail brokers
•4 specialised masterclasses

Asia Mining Congress boasts of atttendance of top Asian investor groups:

•Aluminium Corporation of China
•Aditya Birla
•Baosteel
•China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group.
•China Sinosteel Corporation
•China Minmetals Corporation
•Essar Steel
•Essel Mining
•Hindustan Copper
•Kobe Steel
•Ispat Industries
•Jiangxi Copper
•Jinchuan Mining
•JSW Steel
•Minmetals
•NTPC
•Reliance Power
•Sinom Holdings
•Sinosteel
•Sichuan Hanlong Group
•Shandong Coal Trading
•Shougang Corporation
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•Tata Steel
•Zijin Mining Group

Asia Mining Congress attracts some of the most vibrant and diverse groups of investors:

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•Government Investment Corporation of Singapore
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•Korean Investment Corporation
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•JP Morgan Asset Management
•MOF Brunei
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•Penjing Asset Management (HK
•Pingan Trust
•Pheim Asset Management
•Reliance Asset Management
•Samsung Life Insurance
•Temasek Holdings
•UOB Asset Management
•US Global Investors

Visitors

Major mining companies
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Financiers and mining investors
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Governments and industry associations
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Asia Mining Congress is the number one destination for mining companies around the world looking to raise capital in Asia. It is the event in Asia with the highest end-investor attendance and attracts the participation of a truly diverse group of capital holders.

Boasting of a world-class programme helmed by large Asian investor groups, it is the only conference and exhibition in Asia that has been successful in bringing together both major and junior miners, governments, institutional investors, fund managers and private investors. Its comprehensive agenda sets the scene for deals to be struck in the mining industry. Join us at Asia Mining Congress 2012.

It is the only event where a large diverse group of investors from major miners to Asian industrial conglomerates, sovereign wealth funds, private equity firms, hedge funds, family offices and many others gather to discuss investment strategies in the mining sector. No other event presents you with the largest group of investor speakers who are looking for investment, M&A, deals and partnerships. Click here to find out who's speaking »

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Over 2000 attendees, including targeted investor groups from across 10 different Asian countries

In addition to bringing you a fantastic line-up of investor speakers, Asia Mining Congress will bring together more than 2000 attendees including targeted investor groups from across 10 different Asian countries. If you’re looking to raise capital from Asia’s growing private wealth, Asia Mining Congress is the only event you need to attend.

Asia Mining Congress offers meeting arrangement services for our delegates and sponsors. Click here to find out more about our investor attendance and how you can connect with these investors.

If you are looking to attend only one event, attend the most reputable one. With an 8 year track record, Asia Mining Congress is proud to receive ongoing support from governments and local communities across the region, and is truly the forum where the mining and metals industry congregates to do business.

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Central Asia Mining Congress is a premier platform where mining stakeholders to gain first-hand insights into the latest updates on the region’s major mines and mining policies that will impact their investments in the respective Central Asian countries.

In 2012, Central Asia Mining Congress will once again convene important regulators, mining companies, global investors, financiers & strategic service providers to discuss regulatory policies, mineral prospectivity, investment partnerships, financing and investment opportunities across the Central Asia, Mongolia and Caucasus region.

Speak at Central Asia Mining Congress 2012 ›

The only commercially driven finance and investment focused event for Central Asia’s mining sector.

Supported by the regulators and major mines from across the entire region.

Where mining companies and projects present themselves to international prospects for potential investment and partnership opportunities.

An independent one-stop marketplace where international investors explore opportunities in Central Asia’s mining sector.

Held in Almaty, Kazakhstan - the business hub of Central Asia.
REOURCES

The average retail price of gas in Savannah increased 3.2 cents per gallon in the past week, averaging $3.57 per gallon on Sunday, according to SavannahGasPrices.com. The national average jumped 4.5 cents per gallon in the last week to $3.51 per gallon.

Prices on Sunday were 49.7 cents per gallon higher than the same day a year ago and are 20.8 cents per gallon higher than a month ago.

"Gasoline prices have perked up a bit in the last week," said GasBuddy.com Senior Petroleum Analyst Patrick DeHaan in a statement. "As we continue to move towards warmer weather, gasoline prices will follow, with prices accelerating higher at a faster pace come late March into April, so if motorists think this is bad, they should really hold on to their chairs."

The unseasonably warm weather isn't the only sign of an early spring. Roiled by the specter of Iranian oil cutoffs, gas prices are rising at a record pace, crossing the $4-a-gallon threshold in some parts of the country, and threatening to break an all-time high, experts say.

Fears of $5 per gallon gasoline are in the back of some motorists' minds, jeopardizing the nascent economic recovery and fueling campaign rhetoric during a presidential election year.

"Everybody was worried about Europe as being the precipitating factor to sort of throw the world into a slowdown," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. "Higher oil prices could do that too."

Creeping up steadily over the last month, the national average for a gallon of regular hit $3.57 Monday — up from $3.17 a year ago, according to AAA. Prices typically rise in the spring across the country, as suppliers introduce a warm-weather fuel blend that burns cleaner and costs more money.

Kloza is predicting a national average of $4 to $4.25 per gallon by April, which would increase the chances of hitting a record high. The all-time high nationally was in July 2008, when an average gallon of regular unleaded sold for $4.11.

In the Chicago area — home to gas prices that traditionally are among the highest in the nation — prices are up from last year at this time, when the area was headed toward a local record of $4.47 per gallon in May. But prices have dropped 10 cents a gallon in the last month to $3.54 per gallon — falling below the national average. It's an unusual trend that may continue going forward.

"We're the anomaly right now," said Beth Mosher, AAA Chicago spokeswoman.

The Midwest's supply comes mostly from Canada and the Southwest, which is pegged to the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. There is a surplus of North American oil that could keep prices down for up to a year, analysts said.

Still, the prices are high enough for many drivers throughout the Chicago area.

A delivery driver for Budweiser, Brian Thomas, 42, of Waukegan, commutes more than 60 miles a day for his job in Arlington Heights. Thomas, who has been juggling his bills to make ends meet, tries to buy gas in Lake County, where, he says, it's about 10 to 15 cents cheaper per gallon. But with his tank near empty Monday, he reluctantly filled up at a Speedway in Des Plaines. "It's very tough because you have to make these tough decisions to make it to work," Thomas said.

Prices are much higher on the East and West coasts, where imported fuel is tied to Brent crude, the European benchmark directly affected by Iran and other Middle Eastern suppliers.

International sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program have led to threats that Iran would stop oil shipments to Europe and developing nations. Those threats have contributed to steady increases at the pump this year. The move by Iran on Sunday to cut off its supply to Britain and France may have been priced in, some analysts said.

"When people talk about $5 (per) gallon, that's kind of worst-case scenario," said Mike Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, a consulting firm. "If we don't see (more) cutoffs in Iranian oil supplies, or attacks on oil shipping, we're probably close to a peak now."

Whether they break a record or not, rising gas prices could stunt the nation's sluggish economic recovery. Economists say that higher oil prices may have crimped retail sales.

Apart from automobiles, growth in consumer spending for goods and services has been easing recently — despite a pickup in hiring and income gains.

"I think it's one of the biggest risks in the outlook," Gary Schlossberg, senior economist at Wells Capital Management in San Francisco, said of rising fuel costs. "We're in a yellow zone."

Rising gas prices — in addition to stoking concerns about the economy — are providing fodder for Republicans vying to challenge President Barack Obama in the fall.

Republican presidential primary hopeful Rick Santorum on Monday blamed Obama's "radical environmentalist policies" for the increasing gasoline prices.

Campaigning in Georgia over the weekend, Newt Gingrich reiterated his pledge to lower gasoline prices by accelerating domestic oil exploration and production. ...RESOURCES

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Philippines - South African mining giant Gold Fields Ltd. said it would exercise its option to buy 60 percent of the undeveloped Far Southeast gold and copper deposit in the Philippines.

Gold Fields had signed in 2010 an option agreement with Lepanto Consolidated Mining Co. to take a 60 percent interest in project for $340 million. The mine, located in the Benguet province in northern Luzon, is considered highly prospective and sits between the Enargite copper mine and Victoria gold mine, both owned by Lepanto.

“It is anticipated that Gold Fields will exercise the option and make payment of the final installment of $220 million to acquire 60 percent,” Gold Fields said in its 2011 financial results presentation.

Lepanto has already made payments to Lepanto of $120 million following positive drill results.

The drill results showed the presence of a large, concealed gold-copper system at the Far Southeast project.

Gold Fields is targeting a 900 million ton ore body grading 0.77 grams per ton gold and 0.54 percent copper per ton.

Aside from this, Gold Fields is looking at acquiring the Mankayan copper-gold project in Benguet for $70 million. The project is adjacent to the Far Southeast project.

Should Gold Fields decide to exercise its option on both projects, the South African mining giant will corner a big chunk of the so-called Mankayan-Lepanto gold district.

Lepanto’s ongoing Victoria gold project has one of the three known ore bodies in the same gold district.

Gold Fields has about a year to conduct due diligence in Mankayan and may exercise its option in the project any time until Jan. 31, 2013.

Gold Fields is one of the world’s largest unhedged producers of gold with attributable annualized production of 3.5 million gold equivalent ounces from eight operating mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru and South Africa.

It has total attributable gold equivalent mineral reserves of 76.7 million ounces and mineral resources of 225.4 million ounces.

Gold Fields is listed on the JSE Ltd., the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ Dubai Ltd., Euronext in Brussels and the Swiss Exchange.

Gold Fields, in 2010, had entered into an option agreements with Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company (Lepanto) and Liberty Express Assets, a private holding company, to acquire a 60 percent interest in the undeveloped gold-copper FSE deposit in the Philippines.

The agreements provide Gold Fields with an 18-month option on FSE, during which time Gold Fields will conduct a major drilling program as part of a feasibility study on FSE.

Gold Fields has already paid $10 million in option fees to Lepanto and $44 million as a non-refundable down-payment to Liberty upon signing of the option agreements.

Gold Fields, after the 12-month period, decided to proceed with the option agreements and paid a further non-refundable downpayment of $66 million to Liberty, with the final payment of $220 million payable at the expiration of the option period in March this year.

The total pre-agreed acquisition price for a 60 percent interest in FSE, inclusive of all of the above payments, is $340 million......RESOURCES

China is set to surpass India as the world’s top gold consumer this year, the World Gold Council (WGC) predicted.

The demand for gold in China, the world’s largest producer, rose by 20 percent to 769.8 tonnes last year, driven by surging demand for jewelry and investment, while consumption in India, the world’s largest consumer, tumbled 7 percent to 933.4 tonnes as a result of volatile gold prices and a weak rupee, the WGC said in a report Thursday.

“Looking particularly at Asia, there was a major boost to the overall figures from the increase in Chinese demand, which is a trend that we see continuing over the next year.

“It is likely that China will emerge as the largest gold market in the world for the first time in 2012,” Marcus Grubb, managing director for Investment at the WGC.

The WGC’s prediction came after a surge in gold demand in the Chinese market last year, with imports from Hong Kong, a proxy for its import demand, more than tripling to 428 tonnes from the 2010 level, the Global Times reported.

In the fourth quarter of last year, China was already the largest consumer of gold, with demand reaching 190.9 tonnes of gold, compared with India’s 173.0 tonnes, the WGC said.

The trend of surging demand in the market will continue till the end of this year despite signs of growth slowdown, according to the report.

“China, with its large reserve base, adjustable exchange rate and political decisiveness, may be better positioned to tackle a slowdown posed by falling exports and the policy tightening pursued during most of 2011,” the WGC said.

“The surge in demand was caused by concerns of high inflation, the country’s monetary policy tightening, as well as gloomy global economic prospects, driving investors away from property and stock markets to other investment channels to protect their wealth,” Zhang Yongtao, vice president of China Gold Association (CGA), told the Global Times.....READ MORE

Iran Oil and the Disintegration of the Petrodollar Standard on 17 February 2012
“It’s all happening now,” in the words of Channel Nine cricket commentator Bill Lawrie.

The Middle East, the most important oil producing region of the last hundred years-and still home to the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil-has entered a state of protracted civil and military conflict. This is the geopolitical “game changer” that I wrote about last year in Revolution in the Desert. It’s radically changing the structure of the world’s energy markets.

Here are five recent events in the energy market that directly affect Australian oil and gas shares. Some of them are “big picture” trends for the long-term. Some are geopolitical. And some promise to fundamentally change the nature of the global energy market. Aussie investors can profit from all of them.

   1. North America on the path to energy self-sufficiency. “The US is on a path that will greatly reduce its demand for oil imports,” according to Christof Reuhl, the chief economist for British Petroleum. BP’s 2030 energy outlook reckons that North America’s energy deficit will turn to a “small surplus” by 2030. The big game changer: unconventional oil and shale gas.

    2. Chinese and French companies invest in US shale. Following BHP’s lead from 2011, French and Chinese companies are looking to develop technical expertise in shale gas extraction by investing in US projects. France’s Total invested $2.3 billion in an oil and gas venture in the US state of Ohio. China’s Sinopec, the second largest Chinese oil company by market capitalisation, announced a $2.5 billion deal with Oklahoma-based Devon Energy to develop new shale gas assets.

   3.  Iran sanctions exempt British gas project. Officials in the UK and Europe are pushing the US Congress to exempt a $20 billion natural gas project in the Caspian Sea off the coast of Azerbaijan from sanctions on Iran. An Iranian company owns a 10% project, which means the flow of gas would be cut off from the project to gas-strapped Europe. BP is asking the US Congress to exempt the Shah Deniz II project from the sanctions.

  4.  Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. “If any disruption happens regarding the sale of Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed,” Iran’s Mohammad Kossari, the deputy head of parliament’s foreign affairs and national security committee, told the Fars news agency.

   5. Syria’s regime the latest to be swept up in the Arab Spring. One of Iran’s biggest allies in the Middle East, Syria, finds itself the latest Arab country be engulfed in civil war. The entire Middle East is now engaged in proxy wars between Iranian interests, Islamists, and factions backed by Western governments and oil companies.

The best example of the change sweeping the world’s energy markets is the growing relationship between Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest crude oil producer) and China (the world’s largest energy consumer).

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made Saudi Arabia the first stop on his tour of the Middle East in early January. While there, China Petrochemical Corporation (also known as Sinopec) signed a deal with state-owned Saudi Aramco to build a 400,000 barrel a day, $8.5 billion oil refinery near the Red Sea coastal city of Yanbu.

This is the New Energy Superhighway I wrote about in Revolution in the Desert. Chinese capital and infrastructure know-how are being paired with Saudi energy to change the calculus of the world’s energy markets. You can see how dependent China is on Saudi (and Iranian) oil from the chart below.

The New Energy Superhighway between China and Saudi Arabia

The New Energy Superhighway between China and Saudi Arabia

China’s dependence on Iranian and Saudi oil is one reason why China is likely to block any sanctions on Iran in the United Nations, if it comes to that. The Chinese are not interested in quarrelling with Iran. They’re interested in buying oil from it. And they’re not the only ones.

Unconfirmed reports on the Internet in January reported that India is negotiating with Iran to buy Iranian oil and pay for it in gold, not US dollars. India imports $12 billion worth of oil from Iran each year, or about 12% of its total consumption. India is the second largest export destination for Iranian oil. As I said, the report is unconfirmed. It’s interesting to think about anyway. India would not be able to legally buy oil in dollars from Iran if the UN approved sanctions. But the report claims UCO, a Kolkata-based public bank, could broker the gold-for-oil transaction outside UN rules.

What you’re seeing unfold is the breaking of the Petrodollar Standard. Oil has been priced in US dollars for years. The dollar pricing of oil forces countries like India, China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to do business in a currency none of them otherwise use. With the US strategically disengaging from the Middle East (thanks to shale gas and the Arab Spring) the whole Petrodollar standard may be disintegrating. This disintegration will unleash uncertainty and opportunity in the world’s energy markets. .....RESOURCES

Gold prices rose Rs 42 to Rs 28,169 per 10 grams at the futures trade today

Gold prices rose Rs 42 to Rs 28,169 per 10 grams at the futures trade today, as speculators enlarged their positions, tracking a firming global trend.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in April rose Rs 42 or 0.15 per cent to Rs 28,169 per 10 grams with a business turnover of 2,304 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June moved up by Rs 29 or 0.10 per cent to Rs 28,518 per 10 grams in 67 lots.

Market analysts said increased buying by speculators in tandem with a firming global trend mainly led to rise in gold prices at the futures trading.

Meanwhile, gold gained 0.2 per cent to $1,731.57 an ounce in Singapore. – PTI

Tags: Gold analysis, Gold future prices, Gold futures, Gold investment, Gold news, Gold price, gold price forecast, gold price per gram, Gold prices, India gold, India gold price, price of gold, Spot gold, Spot gold price

The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates technically recoverable shale gas in China at 36 trillion cubic meters (Tcm), while the Chinese government Ministry of Land and Resources unofficially puts the figure at 31 Tcm, of which only 25 Tcm are actually susceptible to be explored.

The ministry announced this week that it will emphasize shale gas survey and appraisal this year. The move follows the decision of the State Council, or cabinet, last month to designate shale gas as an "independent” mining resource, opening up the sector to private Chinese firms.

However, none of these figures really takes into account the actual geological situations of the resource in different parts of the country and corresponding constraints on its development. In fact, the geology is different from in the US, and the technical issues are more difficult.

For several years, Chinese energy companies have been scouring the globe (or at least North America, where the techniques are best developed) in search of shale-gas technology, including hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"), that they can use for the domestic development of the industry. In 2011, Chinese state-owned enterprises invested in Canada nearly one-third of the almost US$18 billion that they spent buying energy companies.

Sinopec bought Daylight Energy Ltd for about $2.2 billion, its largest foreign acquisition of 2011, to get access to shale-gas reserves in Canada. PetroChina was in talks with Encana Corp to acquire the latter's Cutbank Ridge assets until the price difference was seen to be unbridgeable, whereupon the Chinese company took its $5.4 billion bid off the table. Earlier this year, PetroChina paid over $1 billion for a one-fifth stake in a Royal Dutch Shell Plc shale-gas project in western Canada.

Chinese forays have also naturally extended to the US, where PetroChina announced a $2.5 billion investment in new fields under development by the US firm Devon Energy. According to the Financial Times, the latter sum represents $900 million cash and fully 80% of Devon's development costs, for which Sinopec will acquire, however, only a one-third stake. All of these investments are intended to gain access to shale-gas technology, in particularly hydraulic fracturing.

As a result of the differences from North American shale geology, however, it is not clear how transferable the technologies will be. Shale deposits in China are further down in the ground than they are in the US, where shale gas has become an important part of the country's fuel supply mix. This fact along with the increased complexity of the formations will increase cost of recovery by itself. In addition, "the mineralogy of the shale rocks in China is primarily … non-marine, which means … [they] have much [higher] clay content and are [less] easily fractured," according to energy analyst Neil Beveridge of Sanford C Bernstein & Co, as quoted by Bloomberg.

China became a net importer of natural gas in 2007. The result of delay in developing the country's shale gas will be a need to increase purchases from foreign suppliers. At the end of last year, Turkmenistan agreed to increase its exports to China from the South Yolotan field that China is helping to develop, from the previously agreed 40 bcm/y to 65 bcm/y. A 12 bcm/y pipeline is also under construction from Myanmar, scheduled to enter into service in 2013. Natural gas as well as oil was also under discussion during Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper's five-day visit to Beijing this month.

China also has the option for Russian gas from Siberia, through two pipelines, each with a projected capacity of 28 to 39 bcm/y. However, the memorandum of understanding with Russia over these projects was signed six years ago, and many rounds of negotiations have taken place, including at the highest level of the respective political executives. Still, no definite agreement has been reached, as disagreements over price persist. Both sides drive hard bargains, and there is no guarantee of a final resolution.

CNOOC and PetroChina have already signed several long terms supply contracts for LNG imports equivalent to almost 31 bcm/y with Asian firms that source LNG from Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. According to Businessweek, the French firm GDF Suez has estimated that China may need to import as much as 46 bcm/y natural gas equivalent of LNG by 2020, although estimating Chinese demand a decade hence is nearly as much art as science and estimates may differ by a factor of two or even more, depending on the methodology or lack of it. Still, there is a prospective shortfall of significant proportions, unless China suffers a "hard landing” to its current still-dynamic growth.

Dr Robert M Cutler (http://www.robertcutler.org), educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and The University of Michigan, has researched and taught at universities in the United States, Canada, France, Switzerland, and Russia. Now senior research fellow in the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, Canada, he also consults privately in a variety of fields.

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)....READ MORE RESOURCES

Gold Price Close Today : 1,726.80

Change : .50 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3335.00

Change : -3 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,623.50

Change : -12.10 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 696.20

Change : 12.95 or 1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.78

Change : 0.06 or 1.00%

Dow Industrial : 12,780.95

Change : -97.33 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index : 79.62

Change : 0.19 or 0.2%

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps, recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.....READ MORE

Hot money to return to Taiwan,odd-numbered days to more than $1000000000,pushing the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate after the shot angle 2.76,approaching 29.5 yuan mark. Taiwan monetary policy authorities although at intraday market transactions,but to the last disc started to buy sinks,or shrink to 1.66 corners,to close at 29.620 yuan,the closing price of a more than 4 months to record.

Traders said,the United States will maintain the quantitative easing policy after 2014,the dollar will remain weak,Asian monetary value continue to rise,even if is to master the 400000000000 US dollar foreign exchange reserves of the Taiwan monetary authority,also cannot contrarian,only to have to buy the needs of the life insurance industry,oil and importers in remitted,increase the number of dollars buying.

But as long as the stock continues to rise,the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate will rise again,Taiwan monetary authorities can only try to keep order.Traders said,this time into the tide is very special,when the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate appreciation,overseas NDF price will appear discount enlargement. But the lunar spring,the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate in the two trading days,gained a total of 3.7 angle,overseas NDF quotes still not to turn a hair.

The current overseas NDF price,regardless of a month or a week,showed the expected depreciation premium,instead of betting on the appreciation of the discount. This batch of inward remittance of funds is not short in short capital speculation,but with investment demand substantial inward remittance,this reasoning,the new Taiwan dollar exchange rate to reduce future or Yi Sheng.....RESOURCES

IMF predicted, would help Saudi Arabia's GDP growth by 7.5% (Since revised to 6.5 per cent ). With 24.9 percent of the 1,000 billion barrels proven oil reserves of OPEC, the country has the largest oil reserves in the world and is also one of the largest producers of oil, next only to Russia. IEA holds that Saudi Arabia is capable of producing up to 12 million barrels of oil a day, compared to nine million barrels a day in May. Early this year with tensions ranging in Libya, the IEA's executive director, Nobuo Tanaka had said that Saudi Arabia could easily offset any shortfall in production from Libya.

With such huge reserves, in the meeting on June 8, Saudi Arabia, along with Kuwait, and the UAE pressed for increase in production quotas. But, countries like Libya, Algeria, Venezuela, Ecuador, Iraq, Iran, were against the move. Consequently, no decision was reached and the production quotas remained unchanged. Of course, the last thing the Saudi government needs at this point is high inflation due to import of expensive food grain, offset by high transportation charges due to high oil prices. Some indicators to gauge the extent of price fluctuation in recent times: The oil price hit $101.08 (Brent crude) a barrel in February, the highest since October 2008 (In June 2008, they were jogging around $147 a barrel). In June, 2011 they fell to $90 a barrel amid fears of supply disruption due to the closure of Suez canal and Egypt unrest.

Hence, Saudi Arabia has, quite unilaterally, pledged to increase production, notwithstanding the OPEC decision. According to a Platts survey, oil production from OPEC shot up by 530,000 barrels per day in June, at a total of 29.57 million barrels per day, compared to the 29.04 million b/d in May. And guess what? Saudi Arabia's production was up by 450,000 barrels per day to reach a total of 9.5 million b/d. Kuwait, UAE too have increased production, according to the survey. And don't forget most of this increase is just enough to meet the growing demand at home.

Saudi Arabia, essentially, is putting more oil on the market to pay for generous welfare programs, basically "buying out" its population from joining in on the unrest that spread through other oil producing nations. This is unsustainable and will accelerate well depletion. At this point, no one knows the actual reserves of the country, which is dangerous in itself.

IEA's move

The twenty eight member IEA, announced its decision to would release oil, about 60 million barrel, from the strategic reserves this August. This, it said, was to compensate for the loss due to the volatile situation in Libya. It is only the third time since established in 1974 that the IEA has taken such a step. One thing to be noted is that Libya, with less than two percent of the global oil output, isn't a huge player in the oil industry. In real terms, thus, the shortfall isn't going to make any significant changes to the oil supply. From a short term perspective, this move would help lower the price of oil. (The news did ease the oil price, since regained. ) However, in the long term, the reserves have to be replaced, and if the demand rises, this short term measure will push up oil prices. 

According to Bureau of Economic analysis the US economy has declined by 1.8 percent in the first quarter. The latest U.S. job report showed a weak economic recovery with just 18,000 jobs created in June, and in the revised World economic outlook, IMF has since adjusted the growth for advanced economies to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent. Indeed, the earthquake in Japan, the resultant disruption in the supply chain, and uncertainty with the varying pace of the economic recovery in the US economy's progress, are some of the reasons for the low demand for crude oil for the first half of 2011.

However, when US returns to faster growth, the Japanese economy bounces back, and Europe recovers from the debt crisis and thus a global recovery, what do we have in our hands, a supply deficit for oil.

In fact, Goldman predicts that the world economy would accelerate in the second half of the year itself, increasing demand. "Prices and returns will rise further later this year and into 2012," a report from the bank said, predicting that Brent crude would average at $120 in six months and $130 in 2012. An EIA report estimates that the oil demand will surpass production by 1.16 million barrels per day this year. The reports also suggests that the oil demand around the world to rise by 1.6 million bbl/d in 2012, a gap of 0.5 million barrels per day (only with increased production). The IMF, for its part, in the updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2011, puts the assumed price for oil based on futures market at $105.25 in 2012. Analyst Hussein Allidina, from Morgan Stanley, said "We remain bullish on oil, particularly in the second half, and expect inventory draws will prompt OPEC to increase production, at the expense of spare capacity".

Of course, by 2012, we'll know which of these predictions come true, though wishful thinking hopes that, somehow, we've got it all wrong. Banks are bullish, you know why. But can we sit back, wait and watch as oil prices spiral, because spare capacity was exhausted?

So, really, did the Mayans predict the end of the world in 2012 or did they run out of space on their calendar? More like what Lady Macbeth said, "Almost at odds with morning, which is which." Superstitions and old wives tales aside, if we look at the oil supply/demand numbers, with close to 7 billion people, we are approaching the planet's carrying capacity. With the oil market set to go through a lot of stress in the coming year, 2012 will surely mark a turning point to remember. .....READ MORE

Oil may rise next week on concern that shipments will be disrupted by tension between Iran and the West over the country’s nuclear program, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Fifteen of 37 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast oil will climb through Feb. 24. Twelve respondents, or 32 percent, predicted prices will decline and 10 estimated there will be little change.

“The main driver of the market is Brent, which potentially has more lift to the upside due to supply-side risks,” said Emori. Daily volumes in options granting the right to buy Brent for more than the current market price have risen above 25,000 on four days during the past two weeks in New York, signaling an increase in bets on a possible price rally.

Threats From Iran

Iran said Feb. 15 it was cutting crude shipments to France and the Netherlands, and had loaded locally built fuel plates into its nuclear research reactor in Tehran, according to reports by the state-run Mehr news agency and Press TV. The EU decided last month to halt purchases from Iran starting July 1 in an attempt to halt its nuclear program.

Iran will increase the volume of oil it ships to China “soon,” state-run Mehr news agency reported yesterday, citing an unidentified official at National Iranian Oil Co.

In the U.S., applications for unemployment payments dropped by 13,000 in the week ended Feb. 11 to 348,000, the Labor Department said yesterday. The claims were less than the most- optimistic estimate of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Progress in Greece

Greece expects euro area finance ministers to approve a second aid package at a meeting on Feb. 20, according to Pantelis Kapsis, a government spokesman. Overcoming the final obstacles may enable finance ministers to approve the 130 billion-euro ($170 billion) lifeline and a bond exchange with private investors that are critical to staving off a Greek default in March, the German finance ministry told coalition lawmakers in Berlin yesterday, three officials said.

Oil prices are rising on demand from Asian countries, including China, the world’s second biggest crude consumer, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

“Most blame geopolitics for the latest spike, and we don’t quibble with that,” Frederic Neumann, co-head for Asian economic research at the bank in Hong Kong, said in a report today. “But fundamentally, Asia’s huge appetite for crude is providing the backdrop.”

China’s crude imports increased 7.4 percent from a year ago to 23.41 million metric tons in January, a record high, according to preliminary data from Beijing-based General Administration of Customs on Feb. 10. Final figures are scheduled to be released on Feb. 21.

“As prices continue to climb, a number of economies, such as India, Korea and Thailand, could feel the pinch,” Neumann said. “While waiting out this Greece thing, keep an eye on oil.”

Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plans to re-open the Damman oilfield, the company’s oldest, and produce there for the first time in 30 years in response to “tight market conditions,” the Economist Intelligence Unit reported yesterday. Officials at Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, didn’t answer phone calls seeking comment.....READ MORE

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) and partner BP Plc (BP/) have won approval from India’s government to prepare a plan to develop a natural gas discovery in the Bay of Bengal, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A panel headed by the country’s oil and gas regulator recognized the R1 deposit as being commercially viable at a meeting held two weeks ago, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is confidential. The discovery is part of a cluster known as the R-Series that billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance and BP plan to jointly develop.

Reliance, which sold a 30 percent stake in 21 fields to BP for $7.2 billion last year, had sought the government’s permission to develop new discoveries to help counter a drop in output from its main areas in the KG-D6 block off India’s east coast. The R1 deposit is estimated to hold about 1.6 trillion cubic feet (45 billion cubic meters) of gas and may be capable of producing more than 10 million cubic meters a day after 2015, one of the people said.

“It’s definitely good news, considering their overall gas production has been declining,” said Deepak Pareek, a Mumbai- based analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. who has an “accumulate” rating for the stock. “The moot issue is the price this gas will be sold at.”

S.K. Srivastava, the regulator, didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone seeking comment. Tushar Pania, a spokesman for Reliance Industries, said he couldn’t immediately comment.

Reliance snapped a three-day decline, gaining as much as 1.5 percent to 824.95 rupees, and traded at 815.50 rupees as of 9:27 a.m. in Mumbai. The stock has gained 18 percent this year, compared with a 19 percent increase in the benchmark Sensitive Index. (SENSEX)

Declining Gas Output

Gas output from the KG-D6 block is dropping after five of 18 wells in the main D1 and D3 producing areas were shut because of water and sand entering them. Output may drop further in the year beginning April 1 as Reliance and BP study a plan to revive the wells, reducing supplies to power utilities and fertilizer plants.

The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, the regulator, is yet to approve the viability of three other smaller discoveries in the R-Series cluster, which lies within the KG-D6 block, the person said. Reserves at the R1 deposit are equivalent to about 14 percent of the primary D1 and D3 fields, which have about 11.2 trillion cubic feet of resources, the person said.

Gas output from three areas in the KG-D6 block, where production started in April 2009, has fallen to about 36 million cubic meters a day, the person said.

Reliance said Jan. 20 gas production had dropped to about 38 million cubic meters a day in the three months ended Dec. 31 from about 45 million cubic meters in the preceding quarter. A peak of 60 million cubic meters a day was reached in 2010 and output has slid since because of technical issues, according to the company.

Reliance and BP got approval to spend $1.5 billion to develop four discoveries in a cluster separate from the R-Series fields of the KG-D6 block, three people familiar with the development said Jan. 4. These discoveries can produce about 10 million cubic meters a day of gas, the people said.... REOURCES

Futures increased as much as 0.6 percent and are poised for the biggest weekly gain this year after U.S. jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since 2008. European governments are considering lower interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using European Central Bank contributions to plug a financing gap for the second bailout, two people familiar with the discussions said.

“For the next few months, the demand side for the oil market should be getting better,” said Tetsu Emori, a Tokyo- based commodity fund manager at Astmax Ltd. who predicts oil will reach $145 a barrel in New York and Brent crude will climb to $155 in London by the end of the year. “Oil demand in Europe is not that strong due to uncertainty over Greece. After the resolution of the issues, the economic situation of developed countries will be in better shape,” said Emori, who helps manage $390 million at Astmax.

Crude for March delivery rose as much as 64 cents to $102.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.84 at 4:01 p.m. Singapore time. Prices yesterday rose 51 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $102.31, the highest close since Jan. 4. They are up 4.2 percent this week, the most since the period ended Dec. 23, and have gained 19 percent from a year ago.Brent oil for April settlement rose 25 cents to $120.36 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract yesterday jumped $1.18, or 1 percent, to $120.11 a barrel, the highest close in eight months. The premium to West Texas Intermediate for the same month was at $17.38, compared with a record $27.88 on Oct. 14.

‘Main Driver’

Crude in New York has technical resistance along the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This indicator is around $102.82 a barrel today. Sell orders tend to be clustered near chart-resistance levels.

Oil may rise next week on concern that shipments will be disrupted by tension between Iran and the West over the country’s nuclear program, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Fifteen of 37 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast oil will climb through Feb. 24. Twelve respondents, or 32 percent, predicted prices will decline and 10 estimated there will be little change.

“The main driver of the market is Brent, which potentially has more lift to the upside due to supply-side risks,” said Emori. Daily volumes in options granting the right to buy Brent for more than the current market price have risen above 25,000 on four days during the past two weeks in New York, signaling an increase in bets on a possible price rally.

Threats From Iran

Iran said Feb. 15 it was cutting crude shipments to France and the Netherlands, and had loaded locally built fuel plates into its nuclear research reactor in Tehran, according to reports by the state-run Mehr news agency and Press TV. The EU decided last month to halt purchases from Iran starting July 1 in an attempt to halt its nuclear program.

Iran will increase the volume of oil it ships to China “soon,” state-run Mehr news agency reported yesterday, citing an unidentified official at National Iranian Oil Co.

In the U.S., applications for unemployment payments dropped by 13,000 in the week ended Feb. 11 to 348,000, the Labor Department said yesterday. The claims were less than the most- optimistic estimate of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Progress in Greece

Greece expects euro area finance ministers to approve a second aid package at a meeting on Feb. 20, according to Pantelis Kapsis, a government spokesman. Overcoming the final obstacles may enable finance ministers to approve the 130 billion-euro ($170 billion) lifeline and a bond exchange with private investors that are critical to staving off a Greek default in March, the German finance ministry told coalition lawmakers in Berlin yesterday, three officials said.

Oil prices are rising on demand from Asian countries, including China, the world’s second biggest crude consumer, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

“Most blame geopolitics for the latest spike, and we don’t quibble with that,” Frederic Neumann, co-head for Asian economic research at the bank in Hong Kong, said in a report today. “But fundamentally, Asia’s huge appetite for crude is providing the backdrop.”

China’s crude imports increased 7.4 percent from a year ago to 23.41 million metric tons in January, a record high, according to preliminary data from Beijing-based General Administration of Customs on Feb. 10. Final figures are scheduled to be released on Feb. 21.

“As prices continue to climb, a number of economies, such as India, Korea and Thailand, could feel the pinch,” Neumann said. “While waiting out this Greece thing, keep an eye on oil.”

Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plans to re-open the Damman oilfield, the company’s oldest, and produce there for the first time in 30 years in response to “tight market conditions,” the Economist Intelligence Unit reported yesterday. Officials at Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, didn’t answer phone calls seeking comment....READ RESOURCES

H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE:HNZ) will unveil its latest earnings on Friday, February 17, 2012. The average analyst estimate is for net income of 85 cents per share, a rise of 1.2% from the company’s actual earnings for the year-ago quarter. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 90 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It also has dropped from 86 cents during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 8.1% versus last year to $3.33.

The company is looking to make a streak of three quarters of beating estimates. Last quarter, it beat expectations by reporting profit of 81 cents per share, and the previous quarter, it had net income of 78 cents. Analysts are projecting a rise of 6.3% in revenue from the year-earlier quarter to $2.89 billion.....READ RESOURCES