The US economy was doing well, all indications....Bernanke today

The US economy was doing well, all indications....Bernanke today

all indications show that hiring’s are up, unemployment is slowly falling, and recovery is on track. In Europe both Greece and Portugal, have been handled. Spain and Italy are no longer looking as problematic as they were a few weeks ago.

Investors are no longer in need to a safety net. It was time to venture out to find riskier assets.

Gold is trading at 1637.25 down 56.95 joining most of the commodities trading lower today.

Gold should find a bit of support around the 1625 level, but will most likely break through, especially if there is a strong jobs report on Thursday.

Fed Chairman Bernanke today said again that the pace of the economic recovery has been “frustratingly slow.”

Don’t worry if you missed this trade there will be other chances.

Gold Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Classic 1616.60 1625.35 1635.00 1643.75 1653.40 1662.15 1671.80
Fibonacci 1625.35 1632.38 1636.72 1643.75 1650.78 1655.12 1662.15
Camarilla 1639.59 1641.28 1642.96 1643.75 1646.34 1648.02 1649.71
Woodie's - 1625.58 1635.45 1643.98 1653.85 1662.38 -
DeMark's - - 1648.58 1641.34 1630.18 -

Did You Miss The Trade ? Gold Drops Bernanke Speaking on

Did You Miss The Trade ? Gold Drops Bernanke Speaking on

Since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators, especially announcements from the Federal Reserve. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.

Just about any investors could have and should have “sold” gold this week. All the signs were there. Gold had climbed to an unsupported level, on a combination of market indicators and geopolitical worries combined with uneasiness over Greece and the Eurozone.

Recently, a new economic indicator has been added to the markets, it is called Ben Bernanke, every time this man speaks gold drops.

The last time Fed head Bernanke spoke gold plunged close to 75.00 in minutes. When the FOMC released their minutes and statement, telling the markets they were going to hold rates close to zero until 2014 gold dropped like a lead balloon.

The drop in gold today was predictable and from the basic trading manual for beginners....READ MORE

forecasting crude oil prices march 2012

forecasting crude oil prices march 2012

Analysts expect the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $100 per barrel in 2012, almost $6 per barrel more than the average price last year. Based on recent futures and options data, the market believes there is about a one-in-fifteen chance that the average WTI price in June 2012 will exceed $125 per barrel, and about a one-in-fifty chance that it would exceed $140 per barrel. For 2013, Economists expect WTI prices to continue to rise, reaching $106 per barrel next year. The current forecast assumes that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.0 percent in 2012 and 2.4 percent in 2013, while world real GDP (weighted by oil consumption) grows by 2.9 percent and 3.7 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Revisions to the fourth-quarter GDP figures confirmed the original estimate, the US economy advanced at the fastest pace in six quarters. Over 90% of the advance was accounted for by inventory rebuilding and stronger motor vehicle sales. However, inventories remain historically high and turnover ratios suggest consumption will remain depressed.
Historic chart

There have been several developments associated with crude oil market over the last month but none have provided new direction to prices. A dispute over oil transportation and transfer fees between South Sudan and its northern neighbor, Sudan, have resulted in reports that South Sudan has shut in its production of about 350,000 barrels per day. Additionally, the European Union agreed last week to impose a ban of all oil imports from Iran into its member countries beginning in July of this year, which could lead to a reallocation of global crude oil flows. Lastly, negotiations for a voluntary write-down of Greek debt are continuing between the government and its bondholders, a reminder of continuing financial challenges impacting economies within the Euro zone, which still have the potential to affect near-term economic growth prospects and demand for petroleum products.

Geopolitical tensions between Iran and the West and the pressures of the oil embargo, will keep prices on the high side through March. The average price of Crude Oil should hold close to the 106.00 per barrel, but should begin to fall as tensions decline and as Libyan oil comes back on line faster than expected. OPEC continues to pump more oil to cover the shortages created by Iran. As the summer demand season approaches we should see oil begin to rise, and with predictions of better economic situation and improved production the demand for oil should increase.

Crude Oil Inventory (EIA)

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.6 million barrels per day during the week ending February 24, 282 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 83.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging about 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased slightly last week, averaging just under 4.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 96 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged about 8.9 million barrels per day, 539 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 344.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. ... READ MORE

crude oil prices markets outlooks march 13 2012

crude oil prices markets outlooks march 13 2012

New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April, shed $US1.06 to close at $US106.34 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for April settled at $US125.34 a barrel in London trade, down 64 US cents from Friday's closing level.

"Crude oil fell sharply... Traders were reacting to news over the weekend that China had recorded its largest trade deficit in more than ten years," GFT analyst David Morrison said.

"This added to concerns over the outlook for global growth as austerity measures across Europe take hold."

World oil prices have dropped as investors fretted over the strength of worldwide energy demand following weak Chinese economic data.

Saturday showed the Chinese economy swung to a trade deficit of $US31.48 billion ($A29.93 billion) in February, as crude oil and other key raw material imports soared.

"This suggests that China is acting strategically to boost its energy holdings, no doubt mindful of growing geopolitical risks, and anxious to ensure that it will be able to keep abreast of future domestic demand," Morrison said.

Oil traders meanwhile also booked profits from recent price rallies.

"It seems that investors remain cautious about the level of the oil demand, said Sucden oil analyst Myrto Sokou. "Investors were prompted to some profit taking today, following the strong upside rally in crude oil prices last week."

Iran is seeking outlets for its oil after U.S. and European sanctions cut off transactions with the country’s banking system to pressure the Islamic republic into reining in its nuclear program. The country has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for a fifth of oil traded worldwide, if sanctions are imposed on its crude exports.

State-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has a contingency plan if the strait is closed, Chief Executive Officer Farouk Al-Zanki said today in Kuwait, without providing details. Demand for the company’s crude oil “still looks good,” he said.

Prices are “a bit high” and should be at $100 a barrel, Mohammed Al-Rumhy, Oman’s oil minister, said in an interview at the IEF. The sultanate will produce an average 900,000 barrels a day of crude and condensate this year, little changed from the end of last year, he said.

Kuwait pumped about 3 million barrels of oil and condensates a day last month, Al-Zinki said. The U.A.E. produced 2.6 million barrels of oil a day in February, Al-Hamli told reporters. Angola is currently producing 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, according to Botelho de more

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