Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013. Show all posts
OPEC, which produces a third of the world's crude oil demand estimated 2013
10:11 PM
Unknown
OPEC, which produces a third of the world's crude oil demand estimated 2013
OPEC on Tuesday slightly raised its forecast for oil demand in 2012 following a small increase in U.S. consumption and increased "dramatically" Indian demand after a massive power outage in July.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted in its latest monthly report, global oil demand in 2012 amounted to 88.74 million barrels per day (bpd), up from a previous estimate of 88.72 million barrels per harih, and higher than 87, 89 million barrels per day in 2011.
"Turbulence world economy does not slow down the oil consumption of the seasonal trend of the summer," OPEC said. "Not only did U.S. oil consumption grew slightly, but the Indian oil demand to grow dramatically."
OPEC said that demand for diesel oil India "bounce" to the level of "strong" in late July, after the flood and the death of three national electricity grid that crippled more than half of the country, affecting more than 600 million people.
In addition, the closure of most of Japan's nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 has encouraged "excessive use of crude oil and fuel oil during the summer," OPEC said.
For the 2013 OPEC, which produces a third of the world's crude oil demand estimated to be 89.55 million barrels per day, up slightly from their previous projection of 89.52 million barrels per day, but reflects a growth rate slightly weaker than in 2012.
"Economic picture is not clear (for 2013) and there are many potential uncertainties ahead," said the monthly report.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicted in its latest monthly report, global oil demand in 2012 amounted to 88.74 million barrels per day (bpd), up from a previous estimate of 88.72 million barrels per harih, and higher than 87, 89 million barrels per day in 2011.
"Turbulence world economy does not slow down the oil consumption of the seasonal trend of the summer," OPEC said. "Not only did U.S. oil consumption grew slightly, but the Indian oil demand to grow dramatically."
OPEC said that demand for diesel oil India "bounce" to the level of "strong" in late July, after the flood and the death of three national electricity grid that crippled more than half of the country, affecting more than 600 million people.
In addition, the closure of most of Japan's nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 has encouraged "excessive use of crude oil and fuel oil during the summer," OPEC said.
For the 2013 OPEC, which produces a third of the world's crude oil demand estimated to be 89.55 million barrels per day, up slightly from their previous projection of 89.52 million barrels per day, but reflects a growth rate slightly weaker than in 2012.
"Economic picture is not clear (for 2013) and there are many potential uncertainties ahead," said the monthly report.
Posted in
2013,
oil,
OPEC,
production,
world
Oil prices re-enter the 'danger zone' 2012-2013:... John Kemp
5:26 AM
Unknown
Oil prices re-enter the 'danger zone' 2012-2013:... John Kemp
This analysis is fairly crude and little more than a restatement of the familiar view that growth slows when the cost of oil in consuming countries (the 'oil burden') climbs much above 4 percent of GDP.
It uses Brent rather than U.S. crude prices (also known as WTI) because seaborne, internationally traded Brent drives the cost of gasoline in the United States and around the world.
Rising oil prices boost input costs and squeeze incomes for firms and households, as well as heightening uncertainty and deterring spending on big ticket items.
The impact is rarely immediate. It takes time for the full impact of rising prices to be realised by consumers and businesses - several tank refills and months worth of operating costs before they appreciate the full hit.
While the analysis is simple, it helps pinpoint the threshold at which high prices start to have an adverse impact on economic growth.
Some analysts prefer to express oil's impact in terms of the rate of change rather than an outright price level. University of California Professor James Hamilton has famously analysed slowdowns caused when oil prices surge above the previous peak set over the last one to three years.
On almost any timescale, current prices do not qualify as a Hamiltonian oil shock because Brent still remains below the record closing high set in July 2008 ($146) as well as more recent peaks in April 2011 ($127) and March 2012 ($126)
Leading oil analysts usually downplay the tension between high oil prices and GDP growth. Oil prices are framed as an investable 'asset class' and a source of increased earnings for oil exploration and production companies rather than an input cost for other businesses and burden on consumers. More often high prices are framed as a consequence of strong demand and a healthy economy.
The framework is intended to convey the idea that it is possible to have high oil prices and strong growth. In practice, that looks difficult. In the past, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and others have identified $100 as the threshold above which prices enter the 'danger zone,' which looks about right.
It is important not to be too doctrinaire about the threshold concept. The U.S. and other economies do not suddenly come to a juddering halt when prices rise from $99 to $101. But the further prices rise above $100 and the longer they remain there, the bigger the hit to the economy, all other things being equal.
One of the unfortunate side effects of quantitative easing (QE) is that investors tend to respond by bidding up oil prices - undercutting some of the stimulus intended by policymakers. In the United States, both the first round of QE in 2010/11 and the second round launched in 2011 were associated with temporary oil price increases.
.
Even so, there is compelling evidence that prices above $100 have been associated with a loss of economic momentum. It suggests the Hamiltonian focus on rates of change should be supplemented with an emphasis on absolute price levels.
At least in the current environment, it seems the major industrial economies struggle when prices rise much above $100. It is no accident that Saudi Arabia identified $100 as its target price earlier this year.
Coal Price Outlook Seen For 2013-2014
5:10 AM
Unknown
outlook for premium low-vol coking coal is to be expected with price projections revised downward by 10% to $213/mt FOB Australia for 2013 and 5% to $205/mt FOB for 2014 due to supply growing faster than demand, a Commonwealth Bank research report released Wednesday said.
Previous forecasts for the next two years had been at $237/mt FOB and $216/mt FOB.
This compares with current spot prices of $222.50/mt FOB, according to Platts data.
Previous forecasts for the next two years had been at $237/mt FOB and $216/mt FOB.
This compares with current spot prices of $222.50/mt FOB, according to Platts data.
Demand will fall in the next two years, with global steel mills growing at a "more moderate pace than we had expected," the report said.
The exceptions were China and India which would continue to support global coking coal demand due to limited domestic availability, the report said.
China's steel industry, in particular, was "more resilient than rest of the world" with output at the end of 2012 expected to be "some 2-4% higher than in 2011," based on forecasts by Commonwealth Bank.
The exceptions were China and India which would continue to support global coking coal demand due to limited domestic availability, the report said.
China's steel industry, in particular, was "more resilient than rest of the world" with output at the end of 2012 expected to be "some 2-4% higher than in 2011," based on forecasts by Commonwealth Bank.
The global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to be balanced in 2012 and 213, with supply and demand seen around 326 billion cubic metres (bcm) and 350 bcm respectively, BarCap said in its Global Energy Outlook.
In global coal trading, BarCap said that 2012's import demands of 837 million tonnes would be met by available exports of 843 million tonnes, while 2013 would see import needs of 849 million tonnes met by 850 million tonnes ready for export.
'European natural gas demand continues to suffer from the weak economy and a poor competitive position against coal, with LNG cargoes being diverted to the higher priced Asian natural gas markets,' BarCap said.
'Coal pricing remains subdued, with weaker demand growth from Chinese steel and power producers, coupled with healthy supply increments from traditional exporters and the U.S., leaving the seaborne market well supplied.'
The healthy coal exports mean that BarCap expects prices to drop, with API2 (European) prices to average $94 per tonne in 2012, and $92 a tonne in 2013.
The bank's lower price expectations were based on coking coal supply, which was "growing faster than demand," the report said. In particular, this medium- term supply growth "should be dominated by Australia, Mongolia, Mozambique and China's Shanxi province."
Lachlan Shaw, the author of the report, told Platts Thursday that his forecast for the price in the fourth quarter was that it might be around $215-220/mt FOB Australia. Much hinged on the BMA strike situation, Shaw said, "the big watch point for coking coal is supply."
South African API4 prices were expected to fall from an average of $95 to $94 a tonne between 2012 and 2013, while Australian Newcastle coal prices would see a an annual average decline from $99 a tonne to $97 per tonne.
Despite healthy coal demand in Europe and Asia, BarCap said that 'the story of the market has been supply, with most exporters able to increase production and U.S. volumes becoming more available
Posted in
2013,
coal,
market,
prediction,
prices
Coals Prices Markets World 2013
3:56 AM
Unknown
Coals Prices Markets World 2013
The World Coal Association does not provide information on coal pricing. We are unable to supply pricing information, market forecasts or advice on where to buy and sell coal because of our ‘Competition and Compliance’ guidelines. Please direct enquiries on these areas to the companies and organisations listed at the bottom of this page. WCA will not respond to any enquires on these areas.
Coal prices have historically been lower and more stable than oil and gas prices. Coal is likely to remain the most affordable fuel for power generation in many developing and industrialised countries for decades.
In countries with energy intensive industries, the impact of fuel and electricity price increases is compounded. High prices can lead to a loss of competitive advantage and in prolonged cases, loss of the industry altogether.
Countries with access to indigenous energy supplies, or to affordable fuels from a well-supplied world market, can avoid many of these negative impacts, enabling further economic development and growth.
"Coal News and Markets Report" summarizes spot coal prices by coal commodity regions (i.e., Central Appalachia (CAP), Northern Appalachia (NAP), Illinois Basin (ILB), Powder River Basin (PRB), and Uinta Basin (UIB)) in the United States.
The report includes data on average weekly coal commodity spot prices, total monthly coal production, eastern monthly coal production, and average cost of metallurgical coal at coke plants and export docks. The historical data for coal commodity spot market prices are proprietary and not available for public release.
Documents
- American Coal Council - fact sheet
- The Coal Resource
- The Global Coal Market
Average weekly coal commodity spot prices
(dollars per short ton)
Week
EndedCentral
Appalachia
12,500 Btu,
1.2 SO2Northern
Appalachia
13,000 Btu,
<3.0 SO2Illinois Basin
11,800 Btu,
5.0 SO2Powder
River Basin
8,800 Btu,
0.8 SO2Uinta Basin
11,700 Btu,
0.8 SO227-July-12 $61.50 $65.10 $47.75 $8.50 $35.60 03-August-12 $61.50 $65.10 $46.00 $8.50 $35.60 10-August-12 $59.90 $65.10 $47.75 $8.50 $35.60 17-August-12 $63.10 $65.10 $47.75 $8.50 $35.60 24-August-12 $63.10 $65.10 $47.75 $9.40 $35.60 Source: With permission, SNL Energy
Note: Coal prices shown are for a relatively high-Btu coal selected in each region, for delivery in the "prompt quarter." The prompt quarter is the quarter following the current quarter. For example, from January through March, the 2nd quarter is the prompt quarter. Starting on April 1, July through September define the prompt quarter. The historical data file of spot prices is proprietary and cannot be released by EIA; see SNL Energy.
Silver World Prices Markets Prediction 2013-2015
11:11 PM
Unknown
Silver World Prices Markets Prediction 2013-2015
With Comex increasing margin requirements for a second time so quickly, King World News interviewed James Turk today out of Spain. Turk commented, “This may explain why Comex is raising margins a second time so quickly, they aim to put more pressure on the buyers. Obviously the Comex is trying to put more pressure on market participants by forcing them to liquidate their longs.”
says James Tur
“Eric, here we are at $25.50 which is the price that was identified by your London source last week. So they painted the tape, but the Comex open interest shows that they haven’t driven out any buyers which is very surprising. Normally you would expect to see some longs liquidating on any pullback like the one that we have seen over the past few days, but that hasn’t happened this time around.
The buying pressure in the physical market remains, we are starting to see the industrial buyers coming back in to secure supply. My guess Eric is that the industrial users will be there on any price dip like we have had at present. Up to this point we haven’t seen the boomerang effect that I have been anticipating but I am still expecting a sharp snap back in prices.
As we pointed out in the piece which had Mark Lundeen’s illustration in it, gold is dramatically undervalued and this can only result in much, much higher prices over time. I would just add that I expect the gold/silver ratio to decline over time to under 20 to 1, so silver will be exploding along with the price of gold.
As you know Eric I have been projecting gold to hit $8,000 by 2013 to 2015, so that would equate to silver hitting $400, and that is well within the realm of possibility as silver reverts back to its historical mean.”
This is what happens in bull markets, prices climb to levels that previously seemed unimaginable.
COMMENTS
Turk and others call out a silver price because of the historic ratio gold and silver has had at 16 to 1. BIG PROBLEM- when the ratio was 16 to 1 there was never the largest illegal futers short mess there is now.Silver has the largest naked short position of ANY commodity in the history of the world.
Silver was not needed to manufacture thousands of products needed to make our 2010 lifestyle like it is today with medical, photography, and electronics.
Silver was not consumed to the point that all large stockpiles were consumed because a 30 year manipulation made silver unprofitable to mine. Silver will over shoot its historical ratio with gold UNTIL more silver comes to market and this will take years. Gold and silver will hit a 1 to 1 ratio.
Industrial users are going to panic buy, investors are going to panic buy.. 99% of the worlds population has no idea about what is going on in the silver market.
When the manipulation is broken and should be soon, silver will skrocket. Its like holding a beachball below the surface of the ocean to 1000 feet.
what happens when you release that beachball? the reaction to the manipulation and physical shortage caused by that manipulation will over react.
You will see a 1 to 1 ratio between gold and silver.
I don't think it will take 2 years to get there.
I don't think it will take 2 years to get there.
Iron ore Would Rise by more than 50 million tonnes in China 2012 - 2013
8:24 AM
Unknown
Iron ore Would Rise by more than 50 million tonnes in China 2012 - 2013
Demand for iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient, has slumped as a sluggish global economy has forced steel mills around the world to cut production. In China, the world's top steelmaker, many plants have halted fresh purchases on poor demand for the metal, falling steel prices and swelling inventories.
A further drop in demand, along with new mine supplies, could push the current three-year low iron ore prices lower still in coming months, threatening profits at mining giants Rio Tinto and Vale.
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"Along with slowing industrialisation, urbanisation and infrastructure investment, China's steel demand growth has been falling," Mr Zhang said.
"Average annual growth for China's steel demand between 2011 and 2015 was seen at 4.2 per cent, but whether we can reach that growth is now a question," Mr Zhang added.
China's January-July crude steel production grew just 2.1 per cent to 419.5 million tonnes from year earlier, compared with 10.3 per cent growth in the same period last year.
Mr Zhang said China's steel output would reach a maximum of 700 million tonnes over the next 15 years before starting to fall.
China steel futures hit a record low of 3327 yuan ($515) per tonne on Wednesday, dogged by weakening demand that has pushed down the price of raw material iron ore to levels last seen in 2009.
The sustained drop in Chinese steel prices, which has been on a downtrend since April, has curbed the country's appetite for iron ore, with the price of benchmark 62-per cent grade at $US90.30 per tonne on Wednesday, according to data provider Steel Index.
Global demand for iron ore will not grow and could even drop in the second half of 2012 compared with the first six months, with supply also rising, a senior official at China's Baoshan Iron and Steel has said.
Global seaborne supply of iron ore would rise by more than 50 million tonnes in the second half from the first half, Zhang Dianbo, head of purchasing at Baosteel, China's biggest listed steelmaker, told an industry conference. ... READ MORE RESOURCES
Planned Business Capital Spending for 2012 - 2013 Rose to a Records
8:13 AM
Unknown
Planned Business Capital Spending for 2012 - 2013 Rose to a Records
Sharp price falls in key commodities including iron ore and coal, combined with well-publicised delays to some proposed mining projects from miners including BHP Billiton, have led to talk the resource boom was dead and buried.
Most industry participants have poured cold water on such predictions, arguing the rapid and prolonged urbanisation of China in particular will continue to drive strong demand for industrial minerals.
Drilling contractor Boart Longyear bore the brunt of investor concerns - its shares dived by more than a third today after it slashed its full-year profit forecast, blaming an expected slowdown in global mining activity.
"Uncertainties ... are driving our mining customers to be more cautious with their capital," Boart Longyear chief executive Craig Kipp said.
Data released by the government on Thursday appeared to support those views.
Led by the resources sector, planned business capital spending for 2012-13 rose to a record $181.5 billion equal to no less than 13 per cent of Australia's $1.4 trillion annual gross domestic product (GDP). Capex growth of 3.4 per cent in the second quarter topped forecasts.
"The mining boom is not over," said Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan. "We've had some commodity price weakness so the price side of the boom is weakening but the investment side still looks very solid."
Still, the upward revision to the investment pipeline was less than earlier revisions, pointing to a slowing in the red-hot pace of spending that prompted some caution from economists for the longer-term outlook.
"At the start of mining booms you get surprised by how strong capex plans are and in the end, you get surprised by how quickly they go down," said Matthew Johnson, interest rate strategist at UBS. "The risk is they keep dropping but it's too early to tell."
Oil rises above $114 falls towards $112 on storm threat, stimulus hopes
8:47 AM
Unknown
Oil rises above $114 falls towards $112 on storm threat, stimulus hopes
he euro zone's blue chip Euro STOXX 50 index was down about 0.1 percent after the Ifo data at 2,431.10 points, although volumes were thin as the British market, Europe's largest, was shut for a public holiday.
The main German stock index was little changed, recovering some of its earlier losses, as some of the Ifo institute's findings were not as bad as many feared.
The euro also rose to $1.2530 after the Ifo survey was released, up 0.15 percent on the day, but was holding below a peak of $1.2590 set last Thursday.
Analysts said the weaker outlook in Europe's biggest economy could also support political efforts to find a solution to the region's fiscal crisis, in part by supporting arguments made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
"The declining growth rate in Germany shows that the country is not immune from the general slowdown in Europe and outside Europe," said BNP Paribas economist Dominique Barbet.
"This could help Merkel and Draghi convince German people that more efforts to support the euro zone are necessary and are in the interest of Germany."
Crude oil futures reversed earlier gains to fall towards $112 a barrel on concerns that a tropical storm would shut U.S. refineries and as western governments mulled the release of strategic reserves to calm oil prices.
Tropical Storm Isaac swirled into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and began approaching the Louisiana refining hub, prompting U.S. energy companies to start shutting refineries and raising prospects for a jump in crude oil stocks.
Brent crude futures were down by $1.59 at $112 a barrel by 1359 GMT after earlier falling more than $2.
U.S. crude was down by $1.35 at $94.80.
"With refineries shutting down along the U.S. Gulf Coast, traders are weighing this up and seeing there may be a glut of crude oil in the market," Carl Larry, analyst at OilOutlooks in New York said.
"Isaac is also adding to talk of a possible release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so traders are cautious at these levels after a 2-month long rally," he added.
Marathon Petroleum Corp said on Monday it was initiating the shutdown of its 490,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) refinery in Garyville, Louisiana.
In another indication that regional crude stocks could rise, a fire burned for a third day at Venezuela's biggest refinery on Monday, raising doubts about a speedy restart to operations.
Oil prices have risen nearly 30 percent since June with international sanctions hitting Iranian exports and maintenance affecting North Sea oil flows.
Reuters reported that the White House was "dusting off" old plans for a possible release on fears that rising oil prices could undermine the effect of sanctions on Iran.
Brent crude futures were up $1.04 at $114.63 a barrel by 1022 GMT. U.S. crude was up $1.0 at $97.20.
Tropical Storm Isaac swirled into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and meteorologists at Weather Insight, an arm of Thomson Reuters, predict the storm will spur short-term shutdowns of 85 percent of the U.S. offshore oil production capacity.
"The storm is probably helping but there's better sentiment generally. Everybody is waiting to see if Jackson Hole will be a turning point for commodities," said Eugen Weinberg, global head of commodities research at Commerzbank.
Central bankers and economists are due to meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech that will be scoured for clues on a third round of quantitative easing.
He told a Congressional oversight panel in a letter that the Federal Reserve has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy.
The markets will also look for policy signals from the euro zone ahead of a September 6 meeting of the European Central Bank. RESOURCES
Oil Prices Could Sky-rocket Despite Low Demand 2012-2013
8:12 AM
Unknown
Crude oil rallied alongside other commodities and the euro to its highest in three months last week on NYMEX, mostly from market’s expectation of new Euro Zone bailouts and a third round of quantitative easing from the U.S. Fed.
Crude oil had continued the uptreand after the Energy Dept. reported a decrease of U.S. oil inventory by 5.4 million barrels in the week of last Friday. Scanning the news, you are likely to see quotes such as “The [EIA inventory] report is relatively supportive,” and “Supply concerns persist due to Iran dispute, Syria tension.”
On the crude oil side, although crude stockpile has gone through four consecutive weeks of draw, it is still above the 5-year range (See Chart Below). Moreover, as we are heading into the slow demand season of the year, inventory most likely will start to build again.
 |
| Source: U.S. EIA, August 22, 2012 |
About That ”Tight” Gasoline Market
Inventories of gasoline (and diesel) in the U.S. are at their lowest levels for this time of year since 2008 (partly due to recent refinery fires and the closing of some refineries in the Northeast). Gasoline futures have soared 19% over the past two months as traders seem to be betting that prices of gasoline and diesel will continue to rise. Pump prices typically lag behind the futures market by several weeks.
However, America’s demand for fuel dropped to the lowest July level since 1995, plus the summer driving season is nearing an end, which will lead to even lower gasoline demand.
Furthermore, domestic refiners have significantly ramped up fuel exports. For the first seven months of the year, exports were 14% higher than during the same period in 2011, according to API (American Petroleum Institution) data. What that means is that there are more product supply could be diverted for domestic use. And even if there’s a real shortage for whatever reason, refiners can draw more oil from the abundant stockpile.
Iran Oil Sanctions: Where There’s a Will, There’s a Way
Regarding the “supply concern” due to Iran oil sanction by the western nations, Saudi has cranked up oil production to multi-decades high ahead of the actual sanction that took effect on July 1. Reuters also got the latest scoop that Iran oil are still finding plenty of buyers:
Top Asian buyers — China, India, Japan and South Korea together take more than half of Iran’s crude oil exports — have worked around the European Union embargo, suggesting imports will stay at least around these levels for the rest of the year.And here’s how these energy hungry Asian economies get around the ban by the U.S. and EU:
South Korea joined its Chinese counterparts by asking Iran to deliver crude on Iranian tankers, government and industry sources said. This shifts to Tehran the responsibility for insurance, sidestepping the EU ban.Very Few Compelling Price Drivers
Indian refiners have adopted a twin plan to deal with the insurance issue. They are seeking government approval to ask Tehran to deliver the oil, and are trying to use limited cover from state-run insurers for locally-owned tankers to ship it.
Growth in emerging economies in Asia, particularly China, has been the main driver of oil-demand growth in recent years. However, currently, there’s no such compelling story of strong demand and supply shortage that drove oil price to 2008 highs.
Near Term Market Movers
Although the supply and demand factors do not seem to support the current price levels in crude and gasoline, there are plenty of other events to sustain and add the risk/fear/speculation premium.
- The worse-than-forecast tropical storm Isaac is expected to strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane and hit the Gulf Coast at midweek disrupting refineries and offshore oil production. Crude and gasoline futures already partly reflected this risk premium. US gasoline prices could really spike is any of the refineries are off line.
- Petroleum Economist cited unnamed sources on Friday that IEA has agreed to a coordinated SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) release with the U.S. in September. However, during the IEA coordinated SPR release last summer (due to Libyan civil war), oil price managed to climb back to where it was before the release in just eight days.
- Federal Reserves Chairman Bernanke’s often times market-moving speech at Jackson Hole meeting on Aug. 31.
- New bailout and stimulus package development from the Euro Zone and/or China.
- Geopolitics in the Middle East
Scenarios for and the gold price trends 2013
5:28 AM
Unknown
The overarching driver of the gold price for the year 2013 and beyond
will be the development of global financial crisis. The levels of debt
piled up by Western governments and often also corporate/private sectors
are still not sustainable. There is basically one scenario to get rid
of this burden: disciplined deleveraging, i.e. reduction of debts. The
alternative, which was pursued over the past years, is to create more
debt. This could eventually lead to inflation levels significantly above
the inflation rates we saw during the last decade in Western
currencies.
Either way, both a deleveraging, which will probably be long and
painful (‘the lost decade’), or a reduction of the real debt pressures
by means of higher inflation will potentially preserve gold as an
attractive insurance asset or store of value for many conservative
investors in 2013 and beyond. Geopolitical risks, e.g. in relation to
Iran, will support this position of gold as a ‘safe haven’ further.
Gold price forecasts 2013
For March 2012 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg end of 2011 forecasted a level of US dollars 1,950.- per ounce of gold.
The French Bank BNP Paribas estimated in December 2012 gold to
average US dollars 1,775 per ounce in 2012 and US dollars 2,150 per
ounce in 2013. On the other hand Thomson Reuters GFMS expects the peak
of the gold price for end of 2012 or beginning of 2013 and a following
decrease in the price of gold from 2013 on. The US-bank Morgan Stanley
forecasted a price of US dollars 1,550 for 2013. The CEO of the largest
US gold mining company Newmont Mining estimates that the price of gold
in 2013 may increase to US dollars 2,550.
In June 2012, Goldman Sachs updated its forecast on the gold price to
US$ 1,940.- within the following 12 months, i.e. by mid of 2013.
Barclays Capital expects a gold price of US$ 1,790.- in the fourth
quarter of 2012, while Morgan Stanley now predicts gold prices to be on a
level of US$ 2,000.- during that quarter.
Outlook on Gold 2013 and beyond
The diversity of analyst predictions with regard to the gold price in
2013 and the following years mirrors the uncertainties in the global
markets.
An interesting fact about gold is that it often performs well in
scenarios of deflation (for instance driven by global debt reductions)
but also in scenarios with higher than usual inflation rates (which
could potentially occur as public debt level increases further).
Gold therefore tends to perform positively in times of economic
uncertainties as well as in acute crises. Unfortunately, the global
financial problems are not yet sorted out. Some credible commentators
expect several more years of uncertainty and painful deleveraging, which
could end only when we are approaching the next decade.
A moderate allocation to gold will therefore in the foreseeable
future remain the imperative for many investors and could result in a
positive trend of the gold price 2013 and beyond. Portfolio
diversification, i.e. the spread of monies to different asset classes
and investments, should remain an imperative for safety-orientated
investors over the coming years.
Golds prices trends, forecast, and prospects 2013
5:13 AM
Unknown
Gold 2013 ??? the trend for the gold price in 2013 and beyond?
At the beginning of 2012 the gold price had increased on
an annual basis in each year for a decade. What is the forecast for the
gold price 2013 and beyond? Will the 10-year upwards trend of the gold
price continue in 2013?
A majority of gold investors views gold more as an insurance or store
of value than as a means of speculation. These investors therefore
regularly take a longer-term view on gold as an investment. What trend
of the gold price can we expect in 2013 and for the following years?
Gold price forecasts will never be completely accurate, but we collected
some information on the key drivers influencing the gold price and
analysts’ gold price forecasts for 2013.
Gold, the shining yellow metal has
proven to be a safe haven investment option for everyone not only
because of it being a hedge against inflation, but also due to gold
investments have historically shown a low correlation with investments
in other asset classes such as stocks or shares, mutual funds,
government and corporate bonds and even commodities and other precious
metals.
If we see history gold has provided
16.91 % annualized return over the past 10 years. In last 5 years since
2008 the gold prices have risen nearly 125% (Rs. 12500/- to Rs. 28000/-)
making a strong case for having it in your portfolio. The percentage
allocation to gold should depend on an investor’s risk and return
objectives.
Before talking about future return of
gold let us look at historical graph given below which shows gold has
given continuous appreciation over the decades.
This is because “As fewer and fewer
people have confidence in paper money as store of value, the price of
gold will continue to rise.”
You might have following question in your mind:-
Gold price forecast trend chart for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
The gold price forecast trend chart is as shown in the chart below for the years 2011 to 2016.
Do note that I have used one data point per year. That is the data is
the average price for the year. This allows me to carry out gold price
trend analysis with easy. You can can use once a month data but you will
have at least 120 points on your chart. If you would like to
place this chart on your website or blog or forum without any
modifications please copy and paste the contents of this file http://www.drpetersnews.com/goldlink.txt in your html code of your website
• Will the upwards trend of the gold price continue in 2013 and beyond?
• What we can expect from gold in 2013 and following years?
In this post we will address gold price
prospective 2013 and beyond. In order to forecast this we have collected
various data & information from various agencies. This forecast is
for giving you overview about future gold price we cannot assure that
this will be completely accurate.
Gold price trend 2013 and beyond:-
Trend in terms of supply & demand of Gold:-
Like all other commodity Gold price are also driven by basic rule of supply and demand. Demand of gold is categorized mostly in four sector i.e Reserve bank (central bank), jewelry, industrial & investment.
In most of country reserve bank is
adopting approach to buying gold continuously, we hope this trend will
be continue in 2013 and beyond.
Over the last decade jewelry demand
for gold decreased in relation to demand from other sectors, mainly the
investment sector. High gold prices and economic uncertainties will
likely keep gold demand from jewelry moderate in 2013.
Besides jewelry, we have seen major
boost of adopting gold as investment this may be due to availability of
various investment options like Gold ETF, Paper Gold etc. This
investment boost is likely to continue.
Industrial demand for gold in 2011 was 10% of total demand and due to higher price demand in this sector likely to get reduced.
In addition to demand side supply side
is also important for deciding trend. Gold production by mining reached a
new high in 2010 and is expected to increase by about 10% until 2013.
Trend in terms of Global Financial Situation:-
Other governing factor for gold price in 2013 and beyond will be global financial situation. Global financial situation is not so good today, level of debt taken by western countries are not sustainable. They are trying hard to improve financial situation either by taking more debt or by reducing current debts. Eventually this situation is causing significant rise in inflation rates & rise in value of western currencies.
Other governing factor for gold price in 2013 and beyond will be global financial situation. Global financial situation is not so good today, level of debt taken by western countries are not sustainable. They are trying hard to improve financial situation either by taking more debt or by reducing current debts. Eventually this situation is causing significant rise in inflation rates & rise in value of western currencies.
In the long run, the gold price has to
go up in relation to paper money, there is no other way. To what price,
that depends on the scale of the inflation – and we know that inflation
will continue.
Forecast by
|
Forecasted Gold Rate in Ounce
|
Converted Rate per
10 gm in Rs/- |
Year
|
BNP Paribas |
2280 $ | 38635 Rs/- | 2013 |
Thomson Reuters GFMS |
2000 $ | 33890 Rs/- | 2013 |
Morgan Stanley |
2175 $ | 36856 Rs/- | 2013 |
Newmont Mining |
2500 $ | 42363 Rs/- | 2013 |
Standard Chartered |
2000 $ | 33890 Rs/- | 2013 |
Standard Chartered |
2107 $ | 35703 Rs/- | 2014 |
Some forecast may seem to be speculations but one thing is for sure that from here gold price are intended to appreciate more. This may be due to economic uncertainties, unfortunately the global financial problems are not yet sorted out, you might have heard about bad financial situation about Europe and other western countries. This may cause gold price to rise further.
So, looking at global demand and other economic factors gold price will continue to rock in 2013 & beyond. Invest in gold today for brighter tomorrow.
Gold will set record high in future but when that time will only show us.
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